Early conference read: Adams men; Augie and Western women impress

It is hard to know what performances mean at conference championships.
For example, it appears that Adams State men will get the best of Western State this year. Adams recorded a decisive 30-42 win at the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference meet in Las Vegas (uh, New Mexico). If anything, the Adams team appears to be in churn, with Edwin Cruz and Keegan Calmes impressing, while Luke Cragg perhaps had an off day. And I'm kinda wondering where Matt Bond is. Another indication of depth?
Western State's top five were the same quintet that had the awesome pack time at the Fort Hays State meet. But a 25-second gap between Ryan Haebe and Tyler Rasmussen wasn't enough for the win. Again, Tyler Pennel didn't run (and apparently won't??).
Western State's women came up big, besting their rivals by 11 points. Is that only because steeple champ Cassie Mitchell wasn't at the front for Adams? (Correction: Steeple champ Alicia Nelson didn't run.)
And, yes, fair readers, No. 18 Augustana women's win over No. 10 Mary and No. 7 Minnesota-Duluth did not escape me. More on that to come...

How long for Western State pack to cross the line? Try 14.3 seconds

On the dusty, windy plains of western Kansas (It was windy, right? Isn’t is always?), a statement was made in the D2 world.
No. 5 Western State -- yeah, a lot of steeplechasers and 5kers best known for peaking just at the right time (like nationals) -- had a 14.3-second pack time to handily defeat previously No. 2 Colorado Mines. 14.3 seconds? Are you kidding me? If this Western team has the identity of past ones, it’s a bit frightening to think how they’ll come together in December.
Western’s top five: Gabe Proctor, Sean Brown, Ryan Haebe, David Flynn and Tyler Rasmussen. Notice who is missing: Tyler Pennel, 13th in Evansville.
We won’t really know how good Western is until at the earliest the Central Region meet -- in the dusty, windy plains of northeastern Nebraska.

Poll newcomers: East Central, Midwestern State, Dallas Baptist

Very little changed on the most-recent USTFCCCA poll. But the coaches appeared to recognize an emerging picture in the South Central Region:
Abilene Christian and East Central (Okla.) appeared in the top 25. ACU’s appearance is no revelation, but East Central is only one of two South Central region teams ranked.
Midwestern State and Dallas Baptist climbed from the unranked and are among five region teams in the top 25 women’s poll.
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I have to (again) amend my earlier post about when the nation’s top three men’s teams will race this year.
Adams State didn’t race this past weekend, thus not racing (an apparently deep) Colorado Mines. But Adams, Mines and Western State are scheduled to run Colorado’s Rocky Mountain Shootout Oct. 2 -- the same day that many top teams will race in Louisville (including what will likely be Mines’ “A” team). And Mines and Western State are scheduled to race at Fort Hays State Oct. 16. All three will finally race at conference (and presumably at full strength), but it doesn’t matter until the Central Region race in November.

Shadow boxing: Scheduling Adams, Western and Mines

When you’ve got the top three men’s teams (and the No. 1 and No. 9 women’s) in D2-land in one conference, expect those teams to be familiar with each other. Although they know each other’s runners and performances, No. 1 Adams State, No. 2 Western State and No. 3 Colorado Mines won’t toe the line together much until championship season starts. Here’s when they do meet:

• Sept. 18: Adams, Mines at Colorado College

[Note to “anonymous”: Blame me and the media staffs at Oklahoma State, Western State, Adams State and the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference for confusion over who is racing where on Sept. 25 or Oct. 2.]
Gamesmanship? Familiarity breeds contempt? Regardless, the teams will see each other three straight meets to end the season. And, per recent history, the Central Region race will be arguably the most-important D2 meet outside the two at Louisville (preview and nationals).

Mwei, Western State shine, as 5 d2ers dip under 9

Good stuff from Mount San Antonio College last night.

In the invitational race, Reuben Mwei dipped just under 8:40 in the steeple, putting him on form to win his third outdoors title in the event. (He also nabbed a school record in the process. Congrats!)

He may have to contend with Western State's Loren Ahonen, who finished 10 seconds back. Grand Valley State's Tyler Emmorey was a further seven seconds on arrears.

But the race for a national title won't come down to those three.

In the men's university/open race, Western State packed three guys under 9:02, led by Glen Watts (8:59). In the Olympic development race, Micah Chelimo (Alaska-Anchorage) ran an 8:49. Tim Guerin (Mass.-Lowell) might've had an off night (9:09). (Don't look now, but Simon Fraser put one under 9. They comin'!)

Mwei remains the prohibitive favorite in DurhamCharlotte. But Ahonen, Emmorey and Chelimo might surprise.

Adams State will win in Evansville.

I won't predict 15 points (if it wasn't for Daniel Kirwa bringing along his team, it might've been possible), but this is one of the best Adams State teams. Ever. I know one member of the 1992 team that wouldn't have wanted to race them.

The top four (Aaron Braun, Ryan McNiff, Brian Medigovich and Reuben Chebon-Mwei) are solid. I figure three of them are in the running for the individual title. Mwei might be especially motivated, as he missed out on last year's trip due to a mishap. I'm not sure who's running in the Nos. 5-7 spots, but they won't disappoint. Adams has proven themselves, including a front-end finish at the Oklahoma State jamboree, which, ironically, might've been their lowliest effort of the year.

Four years ago, Western State turned the screws on the Evansville hills in the late miles and won a convincing national team championship. It'll take that -- and some bad luck for others -- for history to repeat itself. It would be stupid to write off Western, so while a win might be an upset, it wouldn't be without precedent. Returning All-Americans Tyler Pennel, Iain Donnan and Loren Ahonen lead a formidible team. If they run at the front, as expected, this team will finish well. Like last year, though, it'll likely be for team silver.

I think a national title is a year or two off for Grand Valley State. But not third place this year.

Tyler Emmorey was 24th last year and is running faster this year. (And the guy's only a soph!) Grand Valley State was defeated only by the likes of North Central (No. 1 D3) and Michigan; they held their own again D1 nats qualifier Michigan State. The top four members (including Nathan Knisely, Ross Faasse and Anthony Witt) were within 20 seconds at the Midwest Region. That will serve them well in Evansville. What won't, however, is a fifth man too far adrift.

The only thing between Chico State and perhaps second place is, again, that fifth man. Chico took on D1's best (Stanford) this season and, well, lost, but went down swinging. They are led by transfers Jimmy Elam and Brent Handa (who didn't run against Stanford). Beau Gradone-Rogers has been solid all year. Here's what bugs me: A program this strong deserves a national title. Maybe, if the stars, planets and the Electoral College align, it'll happen this Saturday. My prediction is fourth.

Mass.-Lowell impressively won the New England collegiates and held off rival Stonehill at regionals. Ruben Sanca is gone, but the team will improve on their 13th place finish. Angus MacDonald will likely become All-America. In fact, how MacDonald goes, Lowell goes. My bet is fifth, but second or third as a team is realistic.

Western Washington -- the West Region's No. 2 team -- has high goals for Evansville.

"The men are very capable of being in the top five, but they need to run better than they did at regionals," said coach "Pee Wee" Halsell, according to wwuvikings.cstv.com. The team has a strong lead foursome of Bennett Grimes, Blake Medhaug, Anthony Tomsich and Jordan Welling. But cross country fans know that the fifth runner is the crux, and that'll likely determine if the team reaches its goal. What is for sure, is that the team will top its best-ever 10th place team finish at sixth.

I overlooked Missouri Southern at regionals, but I won't do that again. This team rocked the South Central, displaying remarkable pack running (31 seconds for 1-5) in the country's second-toughest regional. They've run some big meets this year, including their own, a dual against Arkansas and the Okie Jamboree, which wasn't kind to them either. Josh Mathis led the team at regionals; he, their Flying Finns and Nick Niggeman are on a roll. A tight team pack will do them well in a big nationals field, perhaps as high as seventh.

Colorado Mines would win any regional meet -- except the one they're assigned to. Led by that ol' burro racer Oscar Boes (hey, I remember watching him!), this team has only been beaten by Adams and Western. This includes a win over a slew of D1 teams at Nebraska. And the team isn't just Ben Zywicki (19th in Slippery Rock); Aaron Swift, Tyler Curtis and Sean Gildea all contribute. If Zywicki goes nuts, look out. For now, I've penciled them in at eighth.

Top 10ers:

Shippensburg came out of "nowhere" to win the Atlantic Region. Bryan Beegle led a scoring pack that spanned only 46 seconds. There was little to indicate this team's surge (22nd at Paul Short, 3rd in their conference.

Queens needs Michael Crouch to finish in the top 8. If he shows, knock one of the above off.

Southwest Baptist had a fine showing at the Griak meet. Led by Michael Pierce -- a frontrunner -- they could push for a top 8 spot, too.

Central: Adams State, Mwei

I've checked the weather forecast, and it should be a nice day on the Great Plains. Wayne State (Neb.) plays host to the Central Region, which has become D2 dominant region.

Although, five teams will qualify for Evansville, the drama won't be at the front end. Western State might catch Adams State this year, but it's doubtful. The Mountaineers will likely have steadied their emotional ship, after the tragic death of an assistant coach and former WSC national champ.

I'm not exactly sure who Adams State will bring, but I know these three will be on it: Reuben Chebon-Mwei, Aaron Braun and Brian Medigovich. And I suspect Ryan McNiff and Edwin Cruz will make the trip, too. Two Europeans may make the top 7, but I'm unsure of the team selection criteria. I don't want to bet against any of these guys, but I'll take Mwei to win; he's had a great season. (I'm still thinking of that sub-25 minute effort in Denver.)

Western State, though, is no slouch. Led byTyler Pennel, Iain Donnan and Loren Ahonen, WSC won't just hand over the regional title to their rivals over the hill. And if they don't win in Wayne, nationals will present another chance. (It's happened before.)

Colorado Mines, too, is a cinch. Perhaps as a measure of their strength, All-American Ben Zywicki was only the team's No. 4 runner at the conference championships.

The real race is for fourth and fifth, where Metro State (Colo.), Augustana (S.D.), Nebraska-Kearney and Mankato State all have legitimate shots.

• Augustana really put it together to win the Northern Sun, besting Mankato State and keeping their top five pack at one minute. They also topped Mankato at the Griak, albeit by a point.
• >But Mankato State was missing their stalwart No. 3 man, Denise Mokaya, at the NSICs. The squad, Mankato State is led by All-American James Krasja, was eighth last year in Slippery Rock.
• Metro State has been rejuvenated by the presence of 800 outdoors champ Anthony Luna, who may or may not take a liking to 10,000 meters this weekend. (I am impressed by his range.) This is a squad that abruptly lost their coach just before the season start, and they've fared well.
• Nebraska-Kearney has a young squad, but I suspect they'll be on the outside looking in when it's over. Next year?

I'll take Metro State and Augustana. I'm looking forward to seeing how my picks unfold.

Meet of the Week: The Vigil

It's hard to ignore a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup, so for the first week of the 2009 NCAA Division II cross country season, the Joe I. Vigil Invite is my "meet of the week."

Having run it four times myself (although 'twasn't called that way back when), it doesn't always turn into a knock-down, drag-out race. Adams State or Western State may hold runners out, top runners have yet to emerge and oftentimes everybody is just a bit rusty.

But we'll be able to tell something.

Adams State has amazing depth: national champ and 3:39 and 13:35 performer Aaron Braun; steeple champ Reuben Mwei (13:53 best for 5,000m); Brian Medigovich (3:42 and 13:40); Florian Theophile (13:59); Luke Cragg (14:05); and Ryan McNiff (14:19). I have no idea who is running best these days, but I wouldn't be surprised at the emergency of outdoor conference 10k champ Edwin Cruz. (All times are performances from last year.)

Western might not appear as deep on paper with Iain Donnan (13:53), Tyler Pennel (13:54) and Sean Brown (30:16), but Loren Ahonen and Tyler Rasmussen add depth, as do recent additions Glenn Watts (9:00 steeple) and David Flynn. I wonder, too, if redshirt frosh Cordell Baker is ready to make some noise.

I can almost smell the dust and cottonwoods of Alamosa.

Other meets to watch:

Queens (N.C.) -- led by the outdoor 1,500 champ Micheal Crouch -- races at Appalachian State, where they may see D1 competition. Florida State and Clemson were there last year. I have a hunch that Coach Scott Simmons is constructing a squad that will surprise people in Evansville.

No. 15 Alaska Anchorage hosts No. 4 Abilene Christian in the shadow of the Chugach Mountains. It's the Seawolves sole home meet, so they should be ready. Last year, they hosted (and beat) Atlantic Region power Edinboro. It'll kind of be a intra-country rivalry, as Anchorage's tough Kenyans (Cheseto, Kangogo and Rottich) take on Abliene's tough-er Kenyans (Maina, Sang and Tanui). Strangely, the school Web site lists the race as a 5k.

Colorado Mines (No. 3 in Central Region) and Metro State (No. 6) tangle at the aptly named Rust Buster Invite hosted by Colorado-Colorado Springs. Sub-30 minute performer Ben Zywicki leads Mines, while Metro has four 3:50-or-faster metric milers. This should give a good indication of a team ready step up in the Central Region, should Adams and/or Western falter.

Late addition: Harding opens at the Memphis Twilight. A first chance to look at my fave for the individual title, Daniel Kirwa, a double winner in San Angelo. Interesting fact: Start time is 9:20 p.m., in obvious deference to the heat.

Don't write Western State off

After Adams State's exploits this spring (remember those 5k times?), one can be forgiven by thinking this fall's 'cross trophy should be mailed to Alamosa now before postal cuts take place.

But ASC's arch-rival Western State bolstered its roster with two European additions.

England's Glen Watts will arrive in Gunnison for one season. He's around a 9:00 steeple performer.

And Ireland's Dave Flynn has donned an Eire jersey many times and recorded a 9:21 steeple this spring. He'll come with four years' eligibility.

Update: I inadvertently had Watts' name twice. Flynn's the Irishman!

Pre-season notes: Abilene to Alaska; Adams State needs a meet; Western State won't leave CO in '09

In my quick review of regional D2 cross powers, I have to say the most-interesting early-season meet will be the Sept. 5 race at Alaska-Anchorage.

Abliene Christian will bring its high-powered (and mostly Kenyan) lineup northwards, creating a matchup against Alaska-Anchorage's up-and-coming lineup.

ACU returns only two of their top five from last year's fourth-place squad in Slippery Rock; Anchorage returns three of its top five. While I think Anchorage won't quite compete for a national title this fall in Evansville (they were 11th last year). But they're led by seventh-place finisher Marko Cheseto (and 5k and 10k All-American performer outdoors) and perhaps have a surprise up their racing flats. Mark it on your calendar.

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While I have discussed a supposed controversy over a tantilyzing Adams State-Oregon race, the fact remains that ASC needs a meet or two to fill out their schedule. According to ascgrizzlies.com, they don't race for five weeks after Sept. 19, a situation I'm sure they want to fix -- and perhaps already have.

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Meanwhile, ASC's rival Western State won't leave the state of Colorado during its 2009 regular season campaign. I'll be curious to see how that works out, but the Mountaineers are nearly always ready when it counts.

Appropriate honor

Former Western State coach Duane Vandenbusch will be inducted to the USTFCCA Hall of Fame this December. This certainly is just another honor for a truly deserving coach.

Though I chose the rival school, he was always incredibly supportive and generous. A class act.

He liked to win, too. I was astounded to read in the college news release that he continues to teach history at the school!

5,000 fave? Donnan of Western State

As I look back on my picks, I realize I have picked an Adams State runner to win every distance event. Until now. Aaron Braun is the best runner in the meet, hands down. But I like Western State's Iain Donnan over 5,000 meters. The junior Mountaineer is focussing exclusively (like teammate Tyler Pennel) on the distance, while Braun will have only 2 1/2 hours' rest. Of course, if anyone can do it, it would be Braun. It's too bad Micheal Crouch (Queens, N.C.) didn't choose this race, which would've been his best chance to win a national title.

1. Iain Donnan (Western State)
   
2. Amos Sang (Abilene Christian)
   
3. Aaron Braun (Adams State)
   

All-Americans: Marko Cheseto (Alaska-Anchorage), Luke Cragg (Adams State), Pennel, Florian Theophile (Adams State)

Remember, the first final is the men's 10,000 meters tomorrow night. At that time, I'll ignore my prognostications and pretend I knew the winner all along! 

Steeplechase: Chebon-Mwei will win again

Daniel Maina (Abilene Christian) is last year's champ. Reuben Chebon-Mwei (Adams State) outpaced him at this year's Penn Relays. I figure the men's steeplechase title should come down to these two -- and Chebon-Mwei gets the nod, mostly based on the Penn performance (both will likely run the 5,000 final 3 1/2 hours later). But anything can happen, and that's where Alaska-Anchorage's David Kiplagat comes in.

1. Reuben Chebon-Mwei (Adams State)

2. Daniel Maina (Abilene Christian)

3. David Kiplagat (Alaska-Anchorage)

All-Americans: Loren Ahonen (Western State); Nate Preston (Wayne State, Neb.); Matt Schneider (Wayne State, Neb.)

'Cross nats return to Evansville

While Albuquerque gets the D2 indoor meet for the next two years, cross will return to Evansville, Ind., for 2009.

I was there for the 2004 meet -- hosted by Southern Indiana -- when Western State again defeated their in-state rivals during the Mountaineers years of dominance (it was their fifth title in six years). A flat start and finish is interrupted by some sharp hills in the woods. It was one of those particularly sharp ones that Western flexed its muscle and won handily.

As you may recall, the NCAA has proposed another fall sports "festival" in 2010 -- and may push the championship race into December.

Adams State to host indoor nats

It won't be on campus (for those of you fearing a 7,600-feet-above-sea level experience), but Adams State will host the 2010 and 2011 D2 indoor nationals in Albuquerque.

Albuquerque (spelled "Alburquerque" by some die-hards) sits at 5,280 feet, so bring your altitude conversions: It'll be fast sprint times and long throws, countered by some stomach-churning distance races.

If his effort earlier this week is any indication, Aaron Braun should be ready, as will teammate Reuben Chebon-Mwei (who ran a quick altitude steeple a day earlier) and a host of Colorado schools (Western State, Mines, Metro State, for starters).

This is about as close as nationals will likely ever get to Alamosa -- congrats to the atheltics department staff that made it happen!

Fast 5s

Between the three schools, Abilene Christian (1), Adams State (4!), and Western State (2) put seven runners under 14 minutes in the various 5000m races at Mt. SAC Relays. (Adams State nearly had a fifth at 14:05). Nice work.

The small-school effort of the night might have been the 13:33 by Azusa Pacific's Aron Rono. Of course, if your name is Rono, you'd better be fast.

Not sure what D2 squads might be off to Drake and Penn, but I'll keep track.

Tonight's the big night at SAC

A few noteworthy performances at the first night of Mt. SAC Relays: A sub-9 minute steeplechase by Western State's Loren Ahonen, and two 10K's nearly under 29 minutes by Marko Cheseto of Alaska-Anchorage and Chris Clark of California (Pa.). Look for Cheseto and Clark to duke it out for the D2 crown; both were in the top 9 at cross nats.
I'm pretty sure I know at least a portion of Clark's success: Cal coach Daniel Caulfield, ex-Adams Stater and standout Irish middle distance runner.
Cheseto could be a factor in the fall, too. (Clark was a senior last fall.)

Mt. SAC

For those living in the Midwest or West, the Mt. SAC Relays are a highlight of the collegiate track season. (That Stanford invite is pretty sweet, too, I've heard.) I've seen guys break through the 29-minute barrier in the 10,000, and I've seen a season's worth of work go by the wayside. It's kind of a crapshoot, but if you get in a fast heat, you'll roll.
For D2, it looks like Adams State is absolutely loading up the 5,000 meters (five under 14 minutes?!?!); Abilene Christian has four quality 5k runners; Western State has quite a small (but quality) squad; Mankato St. has a big squad; Harding brought a pair of fast 10k guys; and do my eyes deceive me, but is that THE Willie Gault entered in the 100m? (You can read all the entries at www.mtsacrelays.com.)