Men: This is easy. Reuben Mwei (Adams State) -- the sixth-fastest D2er ever -- will win his thirdsecond steeplechase title. I like Grand Valley State's Tyler Emmorey's finishing speed to carry him to second. For third, I'll take consistent Micah Chelimo (Alaska-Anchorage). Western State will have four in the final, and perhaps one in the top three.
Women: Well, this won't be easy. Mary Ballinger (Southern Indiana) returns to defend her title. But freshman Alicia Nelson (Adams State) has been consistently faster, including at Mt. SAC. Megan Rolland (Humboldt State) was better there, too. Mary Dell (Shippensburg) has 2:12 (800m) speed. Cassie Mitchell (Adams State) clocked a 2:14 (adjusted). In light of all that, I'll take: 1. Nelson; 2. Dell; 3. Ballinger.
Don't leave out Ahonen from Western State, he got third last year, is the second returner and has the third fastest time by 5 seconds. In addition he has some decent speed of his own. But if it is a fast race I think that the order will go Mwei (he is unbeatable even with just a good day and a fast 5k heat the night before), Ahonen, Emmorey (maybe Chelimo if the 5k heats are slow on Friday night). Another top condenter is Beau Rogers from Chico, he is a veteran of national meets and has been a consistent performer. Also Mwei will win his second steeple title, not third, Daniel Mania won in 2008 and Ruben was second. I also predict that there will be four Western steeplers in the top 8 (All-American).
ReplyDeleteThe Women's race is wide open. I bet that Ballinger will not let her title go with out a fight, so I would expect a good race between her, Dell and Nelson. Davis looks like she is burnt out.
No love for Tom Karbo? That boy can kick (watch the Drake steeple and DMR), and he has the 4th fastest qualifying time.
ReplyDeletei love 'em all, but can only pick 3!
ReplyDeleteBeau Rogers Looked really smooth in the semis. 8:56 and made it look easy while a lot of the other guys out there appeared to be laboring at 9:00 pace.. Ill take him for third in a 8:51
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