December 1, 2010

The Favorites: Adams, Western, Grand Valley

In my mind, there are three tiers in the men's and women's NCAA II championship field. Here's how I see it:
The Contenders
Men: Adams State, Western State and Grand Valley State. I really don't know how you beat this Adams State team. After losing three top runners last year, coach Damon Martin reloaded and developed talent (see Calmes, Keegan and Huffer, Craig). If anyone can pull the upset, it's Western State. They love to beat Adams and won't quit trying to do so until they're in the finishing chute. Grand Valley State will either astound us or leave us wanting. Coach Jerry Baltes is so close to a best-ever finish, the ex-D1 runner might be tempted to don a singlet and toe the line himself. Adams State wins its third straight and 19th overall (NAIA and NCAA).
Women: Adams State, Western State and Grand Valley State. Gee, sound familiar? This race is not clear cut. Western upset Adams at conference; Adams returned the favor two weeks later. Adams thrives when they're not the favorites (see "Evansville, 2009"). But will Grand Valley run away with it? A narrow loss last year should provide plenty of motivation. Led by Megan Maceratini, Grand Valley State wins its first-ever D2 cross title Saturday.
The Elite Eight
Men: Why is finishing in the top eight important? Because it gives your region an additional spot at the next year's nationals -- which might benefit your team. So, in addition to two teams from The Contenders pool, I expect Colorado Mines, Alaska-Anchorage, Chico State, Queens, Lock Haven and Mass.-Lowell to finish well. Of these teams, I would be least surprised if coach Michael Freiss' Anchorage nosed up into a top three spot. Can you believe the school's best-ever finish is 11th? Won't be after this weekend.
Women: Shippensburg, Pittsburg State, Alaska-Anchorage, Chico State, Tampa and Augustana. Shippensburg could be a top three team.
The Field
Well, this is everybody else. Make no mistake: Qualifying for nationals isn't easy. 253 men's and womens teams try, but only 24 each succeed. For some, qualifying is the ultimate prize. But there are a few teams I could see rising out of the pack, finishing well, and -- who knows? -- creating a future D2 cross power. This could be teams like Bellarmine, Drury or Western Oregon. Alaska-Anchorage and Colorado Mines have certainly "arrived."



1 comment:

  1. It would be sick if Western Oregon stepped it up at nationals...with Alaska Anchorage, Western Washington, and the new addition of Simon Frasier in Canada, that would make the GNAC one tough conference.

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