Poll newcomers: East Central, Midwestern State, Dallas Baptist

Very little changed on the most-recent USTFCCCA poll. But the coaches appeared to recognize an emerging picture in the South Central Region:
Abilene Christian and East Central (Okla.) appeared in the top 25. ACU’s appearance is no revelation, but East Central is only one of two South Central region teams ranked.
Midwestern State and Dallas Baptist climbed from the unranked and are among five region teams in the top 25 women’s poll.
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I have to (again) amend my earlier post about when the nation’s top three men’s teams will race this year.
Adams State didn’t race this past weekend, thus not racing (an apparently deep) Colorado Mines. But Adams, Mines and Western State are scheduled to run Colorado’s Rocky Mountain Shootout Oct. 2 -- the same day that many top teams will race in Louisville (including what will likely be Mines’ “A” team). And Mines and Western State are scheduled to race at Fort Hays State Oct. 16. All three will finally race at conference (and presumably at full strength), but it doesn’t matter until the Central Region race in November.

Shadow boxing: Scheduling Adams, Western and Mines

When you’ve got the top three men’s teams (and the No. 1 and No. 9 women’s) in D2-land in one conference, expect those teams to be familiar with each other. Although they know each other’s runners and performances, No. 1 Adams State, No. 2 Western State and No. 3 Colorado Mines won’t toe the line together much until championship season starts. Here’s when they do meet:

• Sept. 18: Adams, Mines at Colorado College

[Note to “anonymous”: Blame me and the media staffs at Oklahoma State, Western State, Adams State and the Rocky Mountain Athletic Conference for confusion over who is racing where on Sept. 25 or Oct. 2.]
Gamesmanship? Familiarity breeds contempt? Regardless, the teams will see each other three straight meets to end the season. And, per recent history, the Central Region race will be arguably the most-important D2 meet outside the two at Louisville (preview and nationals).

ABQ men's DMR: Metro State eyes title

From my perspective (which, as you know, is limited to distance events only), the most interesting item on the men's heat sheets is Colorado Mines' focus on the distance medley relay.

Adams State will run a (relatively) young squad, which is capable of winning. But Metro will devote the services of national outdoor champ Anthony Luna to the relay. I'll buy that. After Adams, look for Colorado Mines in third.

Poll says: Adams State men favorite for Louisville

It's hard to argue with the 46 percent that picked Adams State to three-peat next fall -- and that's not because I'm an alum.

In spite of losing their 1-2-3 punch (Aaron Braun, Brian Medigovich and Reuben Mwei) and their No. 5 man (Luke Cragg), they'll return a deep squad. Remember this bunch had different 5-6-7 runners at regionals. Assuming everyone returns healthy, Ryan McNiff, Edwin Cruz, Anthony Gauthier, Drew Graham, Keegan Calmes, Brandon Birdsong and someone else I don't really know about, will be a formidible force.

Their biggest threat? According to the poll, it's Colorado Mines. If the Orediggers can improve their 1-6 just a bit, they could be threats for RMAC, regional and national crowns. In Evansville, third place was their best showing ever.

Voters picked (to be) junior-heavy Grand Valley State as third-best bet to win. I suspect Tyler Emmorey and company were a bit disappointed by their fifth-place finish in Evansville. They were fifth in Slippery Rock, too. The school's best-ever finish is fourth. A first-ever national title would be greatly received in that athlete-rich school.

For posterity's sake, here's the early Louisville men's (women's is coming, promise!) results:

Adams State 22

Colorado Mines 7

Grand Valley State 6

Western Washington 4

Abilene Christian, Western State 3

Some other team 2

Adams State will win in Evansville.

I won't predict 15 points (if it wasn't for Daniel Kirwa bringing along his team, it might've been possible), but this is one of the best Adams State teams. Ever. I know one member of the 1992 team that wouldn't have wanted to race them.

The top four (Aaron Braun, Ryan McNiff, Brian Medigovich and Reuben Chebon-Mwei) are solid. I figure three of them are in the running for the individual title. Mwei might be especially motivated, as he missed out on last year's trip due to a mishap. I'm not sure who's running in the Nos. 5-7 spots, but they won't disappoint. Adams has proven themselves, including a front-end finish at the Oklahoma State jamboree, which, ironically, might've been their lowliest effort of the year.

Four years ago, Western State turned the screws on the Evansville hills in the late miles and won a convincing national team championship. It'll take that -- and some bad luck for others -- for history to repeat itself. It would be stupid to write off Western, so while a win might be an upset, it wouldn't be without precedent. Returning All-Americans Tyler Pennel, Iain Donnan and Loren Ahonen lead a formidible team. If they run at the front, as expected, this team will finish well. Like last year, though, it'll likely be for team silver.

I think a national title is a year or two off for Grand Valley State. But not third place this year.

Tyler Emmorey was 24th last year and is running faster this year. (And the guy's only a soph!) Grand Valley State was defeated only by the likes of North Central (No. 1 D3) and Michigan; they held their own again D1 nats qualifier Michigan State. The top four members (including Nathan Knisely, Ross Faasse and Anthony Witt) were within 20 seconds at the Midwest Region. That will serve them well in Evansville. What won't, however, is a fifth man too far adrift.

The only thing between Chico State and perhaps second place is, again, that fifth man. Chico took on D1's best (Stanford) this season and, well, lost, but went down swinging. They are led by transfers Jimmy Elam and Brent Handa (who didn't run against Stanford). Beau Gradone-Rogers has been solid all year. Here's what bugs me: A program this strong deserves a national title. Maybe, if the stars, planets and the Electoral College align, it'll happen this Saturday. My prediction is fourth.

Mass.-Lowell impressively won the New England collegiates and held off rival Stonehill at regionals. Ruben Sanca is gone, but the team will improve on their 13th place finish. Angus MacDonald will likely become All-America. In fact, how MacDonald goes, Lowell goes. My bet is fifth, but second or third as a team is realistic.

Western Washington -- the West Region's No. 2 team -- has high goals for Evansville.

"The men are very capable of being in the top five, but they need to run better than they did at regionals," said coach "Pee Wee" Halsell, according to wwuvikings.cstv.com. The team has a strong lead foursome of Bennett Grimes, Blake Medhaug, Anthony Tomsich and Jordan Welling. But cross country fans know that the fifth runner is the crux, and that'll likely determine if the team reaches its goal. What is for sure, is that the team will top its best-ever 10th place team finish at sixth.

I overlooked Missouri Southern at regionals, but I won't do that again. This team rocked the South Central, displaying remarkable pack running (31 seconds for 1-5) in the country's second-toughest regional. They've run some big meets this year, including their own, a dual against Arkansas and the Okie Jamboree, which wasn't kind to them either. Josh Mathis led the team at regionals; he, their Flying Finns and Nick Niggeman are on a roll. A tight team pack will do them well in a big nationals field, perhaps as high as seventh.

Colorado Mines would win any regional meet -- except the one they're assigned to. Led by that ol' burro racer Oscar Boes (hey, I remember watching him!), this team has only been beaten by Adams and Western. This includes a win over a slew of D1 teams at Nebraska. And the team isn't just Ben Zywicki (19th in Slippery Rock); Aaron Swift, Tyler Curtis and Sean Gildea all contribute. If Zywicki goes nuts, look out. For now, I've penciled them in at eighth.

Top 10ers:

Shippensburg came out of "nowhere" to win the Atlantic Region. Bryan Beegle led a scoring pack that spanned only 46 seconds. There was little to indicate this team's surge (22nd at Paul Short, 3rd in their conference.

Queens needs Michael Crouch to finish in the top 8. If he shows, knock one of the above off.

Southwest Baptist had a fine showing at the Griak meet. Led by Michael Pierce -- a frontrunner -- they could push for a top 8 spot, too.

Central: Adams State, Mwei

I've checked the weather forecast, and it should be a nice day on the Great Plains. Wayne State (Neb.) plays host to the Central Region, which has become D2 dominant region.

Although, five teams will qualify for Evansville, the drama won't be at the front end. Western State might catch Adams State this year, but it's doubtful. The Mountaineers will likely have steadied their emotional ship, after the tragic death of an assistant coach and former WSC national champ.

I'm not exactly sure who Adams State will bring, but I know these three will be on it: Reuben Chebon-Mwei, Aaron Braun and Brian Medigovich. And I suspect Ryan McNiff and Edwin Cruz will make the trip, too. Two Europeans may make the top 7, but I'm unsure of the team selection criteria. I don't want to bet against any of these guys, but I'll take Mwei to win; he's had a great season. (I'm still thinking of that sub-25 minute effort in Denver.)

Western State, though, is no slouch. Led byTyler Pennel, Iain Donnan and Loren Ahonen, WSC won't just hand over the regional title to their rivals over the hill. And if they don't win in Wayne, nationals will present another chance. (It's happened before.)

Colorado Mines, too, is a cinch. Perhaps as a measure of their strength, All-American Ben Zywicki was only the team's No. 4 runner at the conference championships.

The real race is for fourth and fifth, where Metro State (Colo.), Augustana (S.D.), Nebraska-Kearney and Mankato State all have legitimate shots.

• Augustana really put it together to win the Northern Sun, besting Mankato State and keeping their top five pack at one minute. They also topped Mankato at the Griak, albeit by a point.
• >But Mankato State was missing their stalwart No. 3 man, Denise Mokaya, at the NSICs. The squad, Mankato State is led by All-American James Krasja, was eighth last year in Slippery Rock.
• Metro State has been rejuvenated by the presence of 800 outdoors champ Anthony Luna, who may or may not take a liking to 10,000 meters this weekend. (I am impressed by his range.) This is a squad that abruptly lost their coach just before the season start, and they've fared well.
• Nebraska-Kearney has a young squad, but I suspect they'll be on the outside looking in when it's over. Next year?

I'll take Metro State and Augustana. I'm looking forward to seeing how my picks unfold.

Meet of the Week: The Vigil

It's hard to ignore a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup, so for the first week of the 2009 NCAA Division II cross country season, the Joe I. Vigil Invite is my "meet of the week."

Having run it four times myself (although 'twasn't called that way back when), it doesn't always turn into a knock-down, drag-out race. Adams State or Western State may hold runners out, top runners have yet to emerge and oftentimes everybody is just a bit rusty.

But we'll be able to tell something.

Adams State has amazing depth: national champ and 3:39 and 13:35 performer Aaron Braun; steeple champ Reuben Mwei (13:53 best for 5,000m); Brian Medigovich (3:42 and 13:40); Florian Theophile (13:59); Luke Cragg (14:05); and Ryan McNiff (14:19). I have no idea who is running best these days, but I wouldn't be surprised at the emergency of outdoor conference 10k champ Edwin Cruz. (All times are performances from last year.)

Western might not appear as deep on paper with Iain Donnan (13:53), Tyler Pennel (13:54) and Sean Brown (30:16), but Loren Ahonen and Tyler Rasmussen add depth, as do recent additions Glenn Watts (9:00 steeple) and David Flynn. I wonder, too, if redshirt frosh Cordell Baker is ready to make some noise.

I can almost smell the dust and cottonwoods of Alamosa.

Other meets to watch:

Queens (N.C.) -- led by the outdoor 1,500 champ Micheal Crouch -- races at Appalachian State, where they may see D1 competition. Florida State and Clemson were there last year. I have a hunch that Coach Scott Simmons is constructing a squad that will surprise people in Evansville.

No. 15 Alaska Anchorage hosts No. 4 Abilene Christian in the shadow of the Chugach Mountains. It's the Seawolves sole home meet, so they should be ready. Last year, they hosted (and beat) Atlantic Region power Edinboro. It'll kind of be a intra-country rivalry, as Anchorage's tough Kenyans (Cheseto, Kangogo and Rottich) take on Abliene's tough-er Kenyans (Maina, Sang and Tanui). Strangely, the school Web site lists the race as a 5k.

Colorado Mines (No. 3 in Central Region) and Metro State (No. 6) tangle at the aptly named Rust Buster Invite hosted by Colorado-Colorado Springs. Sub-30 minute performer Ben Zywicki leads Mines, while Metro has four 3:50-or-faster metric milers. This should give a good indication of a team ready step up in the Central Region, should Adams and/or Western falter.

Late addition: Harding opens at the Memphis Twilight. A first chance to look at my fave for the individual title, Daniel Kirwa, a double winner in San Angelo. Interesting fact: Start time is 9:20 p.m., in obvious deference to the heat.

Adams State's Medigovich will win the 10,000

OK, so I'm starting with the 10,000, which is the first distance final of the D2 national championships in San Angelo, Tex.

In many ways, this race has the most wide-open field. No one has run a stratospheric time (although Chris Clark of California (Pa.) has a sterling best time), and most of the top contenders are doubling in the 5,000. But, hey, if I'm winning the 10k with eight laps to go, who cares about my second event.

I think Medigovich will take it because he's got the best finishing speed of the bunch. I think.

So, without further ado, the top three:

1. Brian Medigovich (Adams State)
   
2. Chris Clark (California, Pa.)
   
3. Daniel Kirwa (Harding)
   

All-Americans: Marko Cheseto (Alaska-Anchorage); Luke Cragg (Adams State); Amos Sang (Abilene Christian); Jeff Weiss (Slippery Rock); Ben Zywicki (Colorado Mines).

Adams State to host indoor nats

It won't be on campus (for those of you fearing a 7,600-feet-above-sea level experience), but Adams State will host the 2010 and 2011 D2 indoor nationals in Albuquerque.

Albuquerque (spelled "Alburquerque" by some die-hards) sits at 5,280 feet, so bring your altitude conversions: It'll be fast sprint times and long throws, countered by some stomach-churning distance races.

If his effort earlier this week is any indication, Aaron Braun should be ready, as will teammate Reuben Chebon-Mwei (who ran a quick altitude steeple a day earlier) and a host of Colorado schools (Western State, Mines, Metro State, for starters).

This is about as close as nationals will likely ever get to Alamosa -- congrats to the atheltics department staff that made it happen!

indoor nats...from a distance perspective

Adams State certainly cleaned up in the distance events at the D2 nationals...er, festival at the University of Houston this weekend. Lessee: 2-8 in the 800m; 1-4-5-7 in the mile; 2-4-8 in the 5,000m (plus a DQ).

But the biggest win might have been Colorado Mines win in the distance medley relay, taking a tight one from Southwest Baptist. It is amazing that four of the top five relays squads hail from Colorado (Mines, Adams, Metro St. and Western St.). While certainly not a predictor of off-road running, there should be some great matchups this fall.

So just how big was that festival? An NCAA official calls it an "unique attribute." But a search of chron.com -- the Web site for the Houston Chronicle and one of the most-trafficked news sites in the United States -- yielded a couple of features stories. It appears the "festival" is taking an off year next year. Not a bad idea.