The top four (Aaron Braun, Ryan McNiff, Brian Medigovich and Reuben Chebon-Mwei) are solid. I figure three of them are in the running for the individual title. Mwei might be especially motivated, as he missed out on last year's trip due to a mishap. I'm not sure who's running in the Nos. 5-7 spots, but they won't disappoint. Adams has proven themselves, including a front-end finish at the Oklahoma State jamboree, which, ironically, might've been their lowliest effort of the year.
Four years ago, Western State turned the screws on the Evansville hills in the late miles and won a convincing national team championship. It'll take that -- and some bad luck for others -- for history to repeat itself. It would be stupid to write off Western, so while a win might be an upset, it wouldn't be without precedent. Returning All-Americans Tyler Pennel, Iain Donnan and Loren Ahonen lead a formidible team. If they run at the front, as expected, this team will finish well. Like last year, though, it'll likely be for team silver.
I think a national title is a year or two off for Grand Valley State. But not third place this year.
Tyler Emmorey was 24th last year and is running faster this year. (And the guy's only a soph!) Grand Valley State was defeated only by the likes of North Central (No. 1 D3) and Michigan; they held their own again D1 nats qualifier Michigan State. The top four members (including Nathan Knisely, Ross Faasse and Anthony Witt) were within 20 seconds at the Midwest Region. That will serve them well in Evansville. What won't, however, is a fifth man too far adrift.
The only thing between Chico State and perhaps second place is, again, that fifth man. Chico took on D1's best (Stanford) this season and, well, lost, but went down swinging. They are led by transfers Jimmy Elam and Brent Handa (who didn't run against Stanford). Beau Gradone-Rogers has been solid all year. Here's what bugs me: A program this strong deserves a national title. Maybe, if the stars, planets and the Electoral College align, it'll happen this Saturday. My prediction is fourth.
Mass.-Lowell impressively won the New England collegiates and held off rival Stonehill at regionals. Ruben Sanca is gone, but the team will improve on their 13th place finish. Angus MacDonald will likely become All-America. In fact, how MacDonald goes, Lowell goes. My bet is fifth, but second or third as a team is realistic.
Western Washington -- the West Region's No. 2 team -- has high goals for Evansville.
"The men are very capable of being in the top five, but they need to run better than they did at regionals," said coach "Pee Wee" Halsell, according to wwuvikings.cstv.com. The team has a strong lead foursome of Bennett Grimes, Blake Medhaug, Anthony Tomsich and Jordan Welling. But cross country fans know that the fifth runner is the crux, and that'll likely determine if the team reaches its goal. What is for sure, is that the team will top its best-ever 10th place team finish at sixth.
I overlooked Missouri Southern at regionals, but I won't do that again. This team rocked the South Central, displaying remarkable pack running (31 seconds for 1-5) in the country's second-toughest regional. They've run some big meets this year, including their own, a dual against Arkansas and the Okie Jamboree, which wasn't kind to them either. Josh Mathis led the team at regionals; he, their Flying Finns and Nick Niggeman are on a roll. A tight team pack will do them well in a big nationals field, perhaps as high as seventh.
Colorado Mines would win any regional meet -- except the one they're assigned to. Led by that ol' burro racer Oscar Boes (hey, I remember watching him!), this team has only been beaten by Adams and Western. This includes a win over a slew of D1 teams at Nebraska. And the team isn't just Ben Zywicki (19th in Slippery Rock); Aaron Swift, Tyler Curtis and Sean Gildea all contribute. If Zywicki goes nuts, look out. For now, I've penciled them in at eighth.
Top 10ers:
Shippensburg came out of "nowhere" to win the Atlantic Region. Bryan Beegle led a scoring pack that spanned only 46 seconds. There was little to indicate this team's surge (22nd at Paul Short, 3rd in their conference.
Queens needs Michael Crouch to finish in the top 8. If he shows, knock one of the above off.
Southwest Baptist had a fine showing at the Griak meet. Led by Michael Pierce -- a frontrunner -- they could push for a top 8 spot, too.
