5000: Crouch and Spence

I suspect Micheal Crouch (Queens) will be plenty motivated in Charlotte. With Daniel Kirwa (Harding), Reuben Mwei (Adams State) and Amos Sang (Abilene Christian) in the field, he's not a clear-cut favorite. I'm trusting that the lightly raced Crouch will be peaking correctly: 1. Crouch, 2. Mwei, 3. Marko Cheseto (Alaska-Anchorage).

Is there reason to believe Neely Spence (Shippensburg) won't dominate outdoors in this event like indoors? Not really. And that leaves Monica Kinney (Grand Valley State) in second, and Tanya Zeferjahn (Queens) in third.

800m: Pixler (again) and Luna

I know Jessica Pixler (Seattle Pacific) will win, and indoor champ Anja Puc (Nebraska-Omaha) will finish second. Although I'm less certain, for third I'm taking Andria Nussey (Angelo State). Amazingly, she'll also compete in the long jump at Charlotte.

Anthony Luna (Metro State) disappeared this winter, but returned with a vengeance this spring. Will he win again? Yep. I'll take indoor champ and old warrior Denise Mokaya (Mankato State) for second. For third, why not mile relay man Daniel Anderson (UC-San Diego)? This event is a crapshoot (see "Mwangi, Nelson"), so not much would surprise me.

1500: Pixler and Graham

I know there are some doubters about Andrew Graham (Adams State). But I'll take him to win. It's before the 800m final, he can make it fast over the first three laps or scoot in the final 300. Granted, there are no obvious favorites. Micheal Wickman (Chico State) is experienced, and I like him for second. That puts rolleur Ryan McNiff (Adams State) as my third-placer, as he focuses solely on that event.

When Jessica Pixler (Seattle Pacific) graduates, I'll have to think harder about this event. Not this year. She'll lead teammate Jane Larson over the line. I like Michelle SanCartier (Minnesota-Duluth) for third; she ran fast times at low-key meets, after running three relay legs at Drake. Mary Dell (Shippensburg) must recover a steeplechase before this final.

Four storylines for Charlotte

The studs: Jessica Pixler (Seattle Pacific) in the 800 and 1,500; Reuben Mwei (Adams State) in the steeple and 5,000; and Daniel Kirwa (Harding) in the 5,000 and 10,000. These three will win at least four national titles between them. Little surprise that poll voters picked the men's 5k as the "race to watch." Throw in Micheal Crouch (Queens) and it could be special.

The Home Team: Queens won't be on campus, but they'll be a 15-minute drive from the track at Johnson C. Smith University. That could produce some local national champions (Johnson C. Smith has a shot in the relays). Don't be surprised if Crouch, Tanya Zeferjahn (5k and 10k), Meagan Nedlo (5k and 10k) or Simon Stuetzel (1,500) win.

The Last Lap: The men's 5,000 isn't the only event likely to come down to the last lap. The men's 1,500 is wide open, with fast finishers Micheal Graham (Adams State) and Michael Wickman (Chico State). Anthony Luna (Metro State) will ensure a hectic finish in the 800. Will Zeferjahn rise up against Neely Spence (Shippensburg)? Could the entire field be together on the last lap of the women's steeple?

The Schedule: Isn't my favorite. After opening night 10k finals Thursday, there's nothing until Saturday, excepting prelims. Mwei has a tough double. Good thing he's plenty tough.

Who'll win D2 nats?

I'll take my shot at it in the coming days. In order to limit my potential embarassment, I'll pick the top three (in order) in the 1,500, Steeplechase, 5,000 and 10,000. (Oh, to cover NAIA athletes: I could pick the 5k racewalk, 4x800 relay and marathon!)

My picks will be based on:

• Men's outdoor accepted list (I've got to assume whoever is on it, is runnin')
• Head-to-head competition, when applicable
  
• Indoor nationals results
  
• Recorded performance times
  
• Intangibles.
  

It all starts for distance running-lovers at 5:55 p.m. CDT Thursday with the 1,500 prelims. Please share your insights!